- Finally some signs of buyer fatigue as seasonally adjusted home sales fell 20% m/m in both Toronto and Vancouver.
- Condo demand remains robust in major metros in spite of deteriorating cash flow fundamentals. Investors are far more optimistic about a return to 2019-level rents than we are given inbound supply and population growth that will take years to return to pre-COVID levels
- Record new listings in several metros suggests that pent-up selling pressure may be hitting the market just as demand begins to return to more normal levels.
- This is welcome news to policy makers as it helps take some of the edge off the crazy price gains we’ve seen in recent months and provides cover for take a “wait and see” approach.
- Inventory levels remain low across segments in most major metros but are beginning to trend up off the recent lows. Still, we’ve got a long way to go to return to anything resembling a balanced market in most parts of the country.
- Pricing continues to gain steam led by the perennially supply constrained single-family segment.
- Watch the Alberta metros where prices are finally accelerating after over a decade of stagnation. There’s potentially compelling value here for long-term investors if Alberta pulls off the “turnaround story” we envision.
- All eyes are on Toronto and Vancouver, but don’t sleep on Quebec! Median single-family detached prices were up 41% y/y in April on account of available inventory being nearly cut in half compared to last year.
- Strong investor demand for condos has pushed prices in the city of Toronto up 9.1% in just 3 months!
- Toronto: Buyer fatigue sets in as sales fall 20% m/m
- Vancouver: Prices accelerate even as sales tumble
- Alberta: Price gains pick up steam
- Quebec: Median single-family prices surge 41% y/y